Airfield Farm in Newburgh, New York, owned by Jason Spinelli, experienced a 10 percent seedling loss this year. This outcome he attributes to the farm’s irrigation system and access to well-drained soil. (Credit: Benjamin Ibarra)
Young Christmas tree seedlings are increasingly threatened by warmer temperatures, abnormal precipitation, and extreme weather patterns, which will eventually cause a limited supply of trees during the holiday season, experts say.
Seedlings have suffered the highest mortality rates among Christmas trees due to extreme weather events, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority predicts rainstorms, seasonal droughts, and heat waves will increase in the years to come, causing natural resource-based sectors, including forestry, to contend with the loss of some species and adapt to warmer weather. New York’s Christmas tree industry, supported by the nation’s fourth-largest number of Christmas tree farms, contributes $14 million to the state’s economy.
“We typically expect 70 percent of our planted trees to survive until harvest,” said Richard Darling, owner of Darling Tree Farm in Clifton Springs, New York. “This year, however, we have already experienced a 20 to 25 percent loss among our seedlings in their first year.”
Christmas trees are conifers, trees that produce cones containing their seeds. Conifers typically have needle-like leaves and are evergreen, and stay green year-round. While once commonly sourced from backyards or forests, most Christmas trees today are grown on farms nationwide, according to the National Christmas Tree Association.
Darling has farmed since 1984 and attributes this year’s seedling losses to a six-week drought that occurred late in the spring. Seedling planting takes place in April, a critical period for root development. Insufficient rainfall during this time hinders root growth and significantly increases seedling mortality. Darling plants two to three year old seedlings annually, a process followed by an additional six to eight years of growth before harvest. Recent years have seen a gradual increase in seedling mortality rates on his farm.
A stressed Frasir Fir seedling on Airfield Farm in Newburgh, New York. (Credit: Benjamin Ibarra)
Frasier Firs, Balsam Firs, Canaan Fir, and Concolor Fir are the most common Christmas trees farmers are growing, according to Dr. Elizebeth Lamb, Ornamental Integrated Pest Management coordinator for New York State. Lamb said long droughts cause stress, and a stressed tree is more susceptible to pests and illness. Heavy rains saturate the soil, blocking oxygen to trees, further impacting stress and causing death.
Firs dislike waterlogged soil, known as “wet feet.” Excessive moisture promotes Phytophthora root rot, a disease caused by soil-borne water molds. Rising soil temperature exacerbates the growth and spread of Phytophthora and has made it a top concern for Christmas tree farmers, said Lamb.
“We’ve been experiencing more intense rainstorms, not necessarily increased overall rainfall,” said Lamb. “This leads to soil saturation, weakening the tree and creating an opening for the pathogen.”
Facing the challenges of climate change, Pete Goderie, owner of Goderie’s Tree Farm in Johnstown, New York, has been cultivating new Christmas tree varieties using Mediterranean species from Turkey and Georgia. He emphasizes the critical importance of tree improvement research, recognizing that without such efforts, the industry will be unable to adapt to the evolving environmental conditions.
Goderie, a graduate of SUNY with a degree in Land Use Planning and Management/Development, has dedicated 25 years to this long-term project and has been able to produce a limited number of trees with good Christmas tree characteristics.
Christmas trees should have good needle retention, fullness, symmetry, fragrance, and branches able to support ornaments and be sourced from forestry with sustainable practices according to the NCTA.
A healthy Frasir Fir seedling on Airfield Farm in Newburgh, New York. (Credit: Benjamin Ibarra)
Conifer trees require a significant investment of time, typically 15 to 25 years, before they begin producing seeds consistently. Importing these seeds presents numerous challenges. Logistical hurdles are compounded by the presence of the Nantucket Pine Tip moth. The larvae of this moth can be concealed within seed shipments and can only be detected through the use of X-ray technology.
This pest poses a significant threat to young trees, as the larvae feed on the growing tips of branches, causing damage that can impact seed viability. Furthermore, the seeds of these tree species have a short shelf life, typically lasting only one to two years in storage. Goderie is cultivating these trees for seed production in the U.S., with the expectation of significant seed yields within the next five years.
For now, wholesalers are expected to hold their prices, said Jill Sidebottom, a spokesperson for the NCTA. Prices have increased slightly, but so far that has more to do with inflation and rising costs of labor. Expect signs of cosmetic damage or issues with needle retention due to droughts and warmer weather, said Jill Sidebottom, spokesperson for NCTA.
“This not only affects Christmas trees. It’s going to affect the food supply, too. We are going to have to look at different ways we produce food. This is going to have an impact over the years,” said Goderie.
